ICG Commodity Update – August 2023

The ICG Commodity Update is our monthly published comment on the energy, industrial metals and precious metals market.

 

Energy

Driven by OPEC+ production cuts and lower crude exports, oil inventories have declined sharply in recent weeks and supported prices. Options markets have seen a flurry of bullish activity in recent weeks, with call volumes on the US oil futures rising to the highest since May. Gloomy narratives about China’s economic prospects are failing to capture the true dynamics of energy demand in the world’s largest crude oil importer, as indicated by numerous executives representing leading oil trading firms during a significant conference in Asia. World oil demand hit a record 103mboe/d in June and August could see yet another peak according to the IEA. World oil demand is scaling record highs, boosted by strong summer air travel, increased oil use in power generation and surging Chinese petrochemical activity. Global oil demand is set to expand by 2.2mboe/d to 102.2mboe/d in 2023, with China accounting for more than 70% of growth the IEA said. Over the coming days, Saudi Arabia is likely to provide guidance on whether it will extend the 1mboe/d extra voluntary production cut, which is in place from July to September. Saudi crude exports (excluding flows from the Neutral Zone) were estimated at 5.47mboe/d in the first 27 days of August, down more than 0.9mboe/d MoM and at the lowest level since April 2021, according to Petro-Logistics. Saudi Arabia is widely expected by traders to follow suit by pushing its voluntary curbs into October. Russia has already agreed with OPEC+ partners to cut oil exports next month, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Alexander Novak said last week. Oil and gas equities had a strong start into 2H23 making up a lot of ground vs the broader market driven by spot price increases in oil and natural gas. Most analysts think that costs are a tailwind for the group, but they will be for everyone. Nevertheless, the market has been increasingly rewarding those with stronger financial and operating leverage in the improving commodity price environment. M&A was once again a topic in the sector after Permian Resources decided to acquire Earthstone Energy in an all-stock deal valued at $4.5bn to boost its position in the Delaware Basin.

 

Industrial Metals

In August, China’s economic outlook has showed little signs of improvement. On the contrary, the domestic property crisis seems to have deepened with two of the country’s major real estate developers, Evergrande and Country Garden, facing severe financial difficulties. Evergrande has filed for chapter 15 bankruptcy protection and Country Garden last week reported a $6.7bn loss for H1 2023, adding to worries of a disastrous default in the coming weeks. This has sent waves through China and the global economy. The rating agency Fitch expects Chinese GDP momentum to slow and has downgraded its China 2023 GDP Forecast from 5.6% to 4.8%. The ongoing worries about demand from the world’s most significant commodity buyer have weighed on base metal prices. BHP announced that its full-year profits fell as much as 37% as China’s metal demand wanes. Nevertheless, analysts have signalled that the slump might be bottoming out. One such sign was China’s manufacturing contraction which slightly eased in August. The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7, topping estimates and nearing the 50 level that would signal activity has stopped contracting. The Caixin PMI rose to 51.0 in August vs. 49.2 in June. Firms reported increases in output and new order intakes, despite a continued downturn in new export orders, indicating domestic demand was the main source of growth. This has raised hopes that the governments efforts to boost the economy are starting to bear fruits. Last week, the Chinese government announced it is further ramping up its campaign to boost the economy. What impact do the recent developments in China have on industrial metals? Looking at copper for example, it seems as if the metal is stuck between a new energy transition super-cycle and the gravitational pull of the old Chinese super-cycle. We explore the current and future dynamics of the copper market in quite some detail in our recently published research report “Copper – What Else?”. Speaking about copper but on the company side, Aurubis warned it may face losses in the hundreds of millions of euros after being hit by a massive scam involving shipments of scrap metal that it uses in its recycling business. Australian lithium miner Liontown Resources said it’s willing to back a new AUD 6.6bn takeover offer from Albemarle. Glencore has a new rival in its bid to acquire Teck Resources coal division. India’s biggest steel producer JSW Steel is looking to snap up a major stake in Teck’s coal unit according to its chairman.

 

Precious Metals

The rising chance of a “soft landing” for the US economy and subsequently higher nominal and real US yields have resulted in a stronger US dollar and weaker gold price lately. In addition to the macro headwinds, recent World Gold Council demand data showed a normalization. Total demand fell 19% QoQ and 2.5% YoY in 2Q23, and it dropped 5.6% YoY in 1H23 versus 1H22. Central bank buying slowed in Q2 but remained resolutely positive. Net purchases slowed to around 102 metric tons (mt) in 2Q23 driven by sales from the Turkish central bank of around 132mt. Nevertheless, the 1H23 central bank buying was around 387mt, which was a record “half year” amount. UBS expects central banks to buy 700 metric tons in 2023. If achieved, it would be the second highest number of purchases for a year since the mid-1960s – following the 1’110 metric tons purchased in 2022. A step-up in official sector buying was crucial to the strength of gold prices amid rising real interest rates in 2022. This, combined with healthy investment and resilient jewelry demand, may create a supportive environment for gold prices. On the company side at 2Q23 conference calls, management teams generally noted stabilizing input costs and/or initial signs of easing inflationary pressures, but no meaningful improvements to the overall cost structure yet. Consumables prices have started to soften a little (e.g., diesel) while elevated labor costs remain a challenge, particularly for Canadian operations. Interestingly, the two big gold producers Newmont and Barrick guided to a second half weighted production. Production will have to pick up meaningfully to meet annual production guidance. Interestingly, that according to the WSJ, Saudi Arabia is interesting in acquiring Barrick’s 25% stake in Reko Diq copper-gold mine project in Pakistan. On the gepolitical side, Mali’s interim President Assimi Goita signed into law a new mining code that allows the government and local investors to take up to a 35% stake in mining projects vs. 20% currently. However, it is unclear if the new mining code affects existing projects.

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ICG Commodity Update – July 2023

The ICG Commodity Update is our monthly published comment on the energy, industrial metals and precious metals market.

 

Energy

Crude soared last month after OPEC and its allies cut supplies in a bid to lift prices. According to analysts, the visible tightness has convinced the market that announced cuts are not just empty rhetoric – market optimism that we are nearing the end of a rate tightening cycle also helped oil prices gain. Widely-watched metrics are also strengthening, with the gap between the US benchmark’s two nearest contracts at the widest backwardation since November. Berkshire Hathaway is using this year’s dip in commodity prices to load up on some of Buffett’s favorite oil and gas investments, showing that the famous investor sees opportunity in a sector long disfavored due to its volatility and effects on the climate. Berkshire agreed to spend $3.3 billion to boost its stake in an LNG export terminal. This year it has also increased its holding in Occidental Petroleum by 15% and bought more stock in five Japanese commodity traders. Meanwhile, Berkshire’s energy division is lobbying hard for a bill that would see Texas spend at least $10 billion on natural gas-fired power plants to back up its grid. TotalEnergies on the other hand agreed to buy the remaining shares in French clean-power developer Total Eren for $1.66bn from Eren Groupe SA and a group of financial investors, boosting the oil major’s foray into renewable energy. The CEO has pledged to spend $5 billion this year on low-carbon energies, almost a third of total capital expenditure, as the company reduces its exposure to petroleum with ongoing sales of Canadian oil-sands assets and some of its European service stations. By buying out the 71% in Total Eren it doesn’t already own, TotalEnergies gains full control of a firm that has 3.5GW of operating solar, wind and hydropower assets, with a project pipeline of more than 10GW. The world’s thirst for energy, both fossil fuels and renewables, is insatiable, even as the climate crisis accelerates. Both temperatures and oil demand are hitting record highs this year and are poised to keep rising through the rest of this decade. Environmental concerns may have prompted some investors to shun energy, but they may also have left the door open for others to profit. Energy trades at the lowest price-to-earnings valuation of any sector in the S&P 500 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. But it also generates the most cash flow per share.

 

Industrial Metals

In July, metals rose as China stepped up relief measures for property developers, although there was skepticism on whether they were enough to support a sustained rally. Financial regulators asked banks to ease loan terms for companies in the real estate sector, which accounts for about 1/3 of China’s steel demand and is important for the likes of copper, aluminum, and zinc. Several newspapers also ran reports suggesting more measures to support property were coming. According to analysts, China will likely release a flurry of policies soon to stabilize the economy, including more financing for infrastructure investment. Looking into the future, many industry participants highlight the potential for exponential growth in material demand from the energy transition, while overlaying meagre growth projections for mine supply. Currently, most metals markets seem to be balanced though. Recently, the IEA released a new report tracking a surge of investment into the mining sector. Investment in the industry has jumped 50% over the past two years, driven mainly by increases in lithium projects, which indicates that supply is catching up with an anticipated boom in demand through the end of the decade – however, while this might be true for lithium, the investment in mining hasn’t been evenly distributed and more traditional metals such as copper could still face shortages unless spending picks up. While some project developments happen at glacial speed toward commissioning, there are those that remain stalled in the exploration phase. The lack of success progressing from defined deposit through to operating mine is evidenced by the length of time most of these assets have sat on the shelf. Notably 69% and 67% of the projects (by tonnage) in the zinc and copper incentive price curves, respectively, were included within the project populations almost a decade ago. In fact, only 5% and 6% of zinc and copper projects, respectively, were discovered in the last 15 years. Given spot prices have comfortably surpassed the so-called project incentive price in the interim and swathes of these projects were not incentivized, this would suggest many of these projects are at least to some degree price inelastic. Looking at companies, Anglo American and Teck Resources became the latest mining behemoths to post steep falls in profit as China’s economic slowdown dampens earnings. Same for Rio Tinto, the No. 2 miner saw both its profit and payout fall by about a third.

 

Precious Metals

Gold prices closed above $1’960/oz in July as cooling US inflation spurred hopes that interest rates have peaked. The metal largely traded above $1,950/oz in the 2nd half of July after surging earlier in the month on weaker-than-expected price-growth data. US economic data showed a gauge of employment costs rising less than forecasted, cementing bets that the Fed is finished tightening. Still traders are divided on the outcome of the central bank’s next meeting, with the market seeing a roughly 20% chance of another hike in September. According to the Financial Times, demand for gold by wealthy individuals and corporates kept prices elevated in 2Q despite a slowdown in central bank buying. Gold demand rose 7% to 1’255t in the 3 months to June on an annualised basis, according to a report by the World Gold Council. Despite record central bank buying in the first half of 2023, the pace of purchases slowed 35% year-on-year to 103t in the second quarter, as the Turkish central bank sold gold to satisfy domestic investment demand. The People’s Bank of China, at 103t, was the largest buyer in 1H of the year, extending its buying streak to 8 consecutive months. Looking at gold-backed ETFs, investors are about to return after shunning them for months, as consensus grows that US interest rates are approaching a peak, according to UBS. The bank expects inflows into ETFs will turn positive in the 4th quarter and forecasts gold will climb toward a record high in 2024 as the bank sees the Fed relieving markets with a 25bp rate cut in December. Sustained ETF buying is usually a key driver for bullion, yet the metal itself has avoided tracking the sharp downturn seen in the investment vehicles. As gold has performed as well as it has without the support from ETF buying, market participants imply that bullion has further to rally when those investors return to the market. On the company side, Barrick wants to expand and extend the life of its copper mine in Zambia and explore for more copper deposits in Congo as it seeks to grow its presence on the continent according to the CEO. Also, Hochschild said an environmental permit for its flagship mine was approved by the Peruvian government for an additional 20 years – good for the company and a good sign to the markets.

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ICG Commodity Update – June 2023

The ICG Commodity Update is our monthly published comment on the energy, industrial metals and precious metals market.

 

Energy

Many people think oil prices are low because oil demand is weak. While demand growth in OECD countries has been lackluster in 1H23, this has been offset by strong demand growth in China, India, and the Middle East. Despite the solid demand recovery, global visible oil inventories did not fall in the first four months of this year because supply growth was also solid. Besides higher supply from Russia, US production also surprised to the upside. Also, production in countries exempted from OPEC+ production cuts is running higher despite US sanctions. Production in Iran is close to 3mboe/d, the highest level since late 2018, while Venezuelan production at 0.8mboe/d stands at early 2020 levels. Therefore, the extension of Saudi Arabia’s 1mboe/d cut was no surprise to the market. The Saudi effort will be assisted by Russia, which will reduce oil exports by 500kboe/d in August. For the 2H of 2023 there is a widespread consensus that oil markets will be tight. The industry’s general view is embodied by the IEA, which predicts that global oil demand will exceed supply by roughly 2mboe/d in the last six months of 2023 as Asia’s recovery gathers pace. Nevertheless, current positioning is extremely short with combined money-manager net-longs for Brent and WTI falling to the lowest in more than a decade. Nymex WTI outright shorts were the highest since 2017. In natural gas, China is on track to be the world’s top importer of LNG in 2023. The country is looking well into the future to avoid a repeat of energy shortages, while also seeking to fuel economic growth. The nation’s LNG imports could rise to as high as 138mt by 2033, about double current levels, according to Rystad. The 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy showed that despite the largest ever increase in renewables capacity of 266 GW, fossil fuels still account for 82% of worldwide energy supply. There were quite some M&A deals in oil and gas recently from mid-sized players that didn’t get much attention, as mostly privately- or private equity-owned companies were involved in the transactions. There was an interesting statement from the CEO of Civitas about his $4.7bn entry into the Permian basin. He didn’t bother investors with the typical patter about cost synergies and operational efficiencies. He got right to the point “stated simply, scale is an effective hedge against many of the risks in our business.”

 

Industrial Metals

Heightened global macroeconomic concerns from markedly higher interest rates and a relatively anemic recovery in post-lockdown Chinese demand, combined with a strong U.S. dollar and elevated geopolitical uncertainty from Russia’s war on Ukraine, continue to overhang the near-term outlook for commodities – ongoing supply-side challenges have served to maintain surprising tightness in some markets, most notably copper. In the medium to long term, analysts continue to anticipate the emergence of a new commodities super cycle driven by growing demand from global decarbonization efforts which is amplified by the impact of severe underinvestment in new production capacity. According to billionaire mining financier Robert Friedland, copper is heading for a “train wreck” and fears prices could jump tenfold. A combination of factors suggests supply won’t keep pace, as deposits are getting pricier and tricker to find and dig up, funding is scarce, and societies have yet to grasp mining’s role in the shift from fossils. Friedland, who made his fortune from Canadian nickel and spearheaded massive copper finds in Mongolia and the DRC, has long championed the importance of the metal used in everything from wires to weaponry. Some analysts share his concern about a looming copper crunch, but consensus is for far more gradual price gains in the coming years. Friedland points to very low physical inventories of copper coinciding with historically low relative valuations of mining companies. Large premiums paid in recent acquisitions indicate the industry understands where the market is headed, although consolidation won’t solve the dilemma of how to boost production. Friedland points to other commodities as examples of what may be in store for the copper market. Chinese prices of molybdenum doubled from August to February amid supply disruptions and growing demand from the renewables and military sectors. China is a dominant player in the processing of nickel, copper, cobalt and other resources that are key to economic growth and clean-energy technologies. With initiatives such as the Inflation Reduction Act, the US is seeking to curtail global dependence on China as competition increases. The EU has already proposed classifying copper and nickel as critical raw materials in legislation designed to bolster supplies, alongside other metals key to the energy transition.

 

Precious Metals

Overall, it’s been a painful quarter for gold prices. With equity markets going into overdrive and recession nerves calming, demand for safe haven assets suffered. The sharp rally in real yields didn’t do gold any favors either. According to analysts, warnings from central banks, including the Federal Reserve, that they would push interest rates even higher to try and tame inflation more quickly, pressured gold prices. Looking at silver, changes to solar panel technology are accelerating demand – a phenomenon that’s widening a supply deficit for the metal with little additional mine production on the horizon. Silver, in paste form, provides a conductive layer on the front and the back of silicon solar cells. But the industry is now beginning to make more efficient versions of cells that use a lot more of the metal, which is set to boost already-increasing consumption. Solar is still a small part of overall silver demand, but it’s growing. According to a report from The Silver Institute, it’s forecast to make up 14% of consumption this year, up from around 5% in 2014. The trouble for silver buyers is that cranking up supply is far from easy, given the rarity of primary mines. About 80% of supply of the metal comes from lead, zinc, copper, and gold projects, where silver is a by-product. In the PGM markets, hedge funds are lining up to short palladium as weak global demand points to a potential oversupply of the precious metal. Palladium, a metal used primarily in catalytic converters in car exhausts, slid more than 30% in the first 6 months of 2023 as global economic headwinds threatened to cut demand from automakers. While traders initially expected blackouts in South Africa, the world’s second largest mining nation, production there has held up better than expected. Prospects of supply outpacing consumption have been underlined by the shift to cheaper platinum in gasoline-powered vehicles, as well as the increasing adoption of electric vehicles. On the M&A front, Kinross Gold rejected a takeover approach from Endeavour. West Gold and Ramelius are both battling for Musgrave Resources and First Quantum recently rebuffed an informal approach from Barrick Gold as the company is seeking to diversify into copper, according to Bloomberg.

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ICG Commodity Update – May 2023

The ICG Commodity Update is our monthly published comment on the energy, industrial metals and precious metals market.

 

Energy

Economic growth concerns continue to weigh on cyclical assets, including energy prices. Crude has retreated 17% in the past six weeks to trade near $72/bl. Disappointing Chinese economic indicators and fears of a US recession have emboldened bearish speculators and the short interest increased. The debt ceiling deal passing the House provided some support. Nevertheless, prices remain under pressure ahead of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting. Experts (25 out of 31 traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg last week) expect OPEC+ to focus on establishing a strong commitment to the deeper production cut started in May, rather than making another round of reductions. Russia also said OPEC+ is unlikely to take any further measures at its meeting, undercutting Saudi Arabia’s warning to oil short sellers to “watch out.” Despite Russia having previously pledged to reduce output, its crude oil flows to international markets show no substantive sign of the curbs. However, Russia no longer publishes oil-related data, therefore market participants have switched to another metric to measure the production cut: crude exports via tankers. Interestingly, the energy agencies IEA, EIA and OPEC recently made positive changes to their oil demand growth forecasts, which still suggest robust growth this year. The IEA projects the highest absolute demand of 102Mb/d. The IEA expects global demand to exceed 103Mb/d in 3Q23, with 4Q demand further expanding supported by non-OECD countries. A key observation from the Oil Majors’ 1Q reporting was that they hold close to $150bn in cash reserves, almost twice the historical average. Additionally, the Oil Majors’ net debt-to-equity ratio reached record-lows. These observations indicate that the majors are ready to increase investments as their finances are strong. However, regarding organic investments, the companies are guiding for modest growth from 2023. The key question pertains to how the majors will allocate the capital in these substantial cash reserves. One possibility is an increased focus on acquiring new assets or companies. This will be an increasing trend, we think. This month we had Chevron announcing the acquisition of PDC Energy in an all-stock deal that values the company at ~$6.3bn. This was already the 2nd M&A position in our current ECF portfolio this year.

 

Industrial Metals

Metals suffered in May as investors cooled on the prospect of a robust economic recovery in China. Copper has tumbled below $8’000/t for the first time in 6 months in the face of disappointing economic data from the world’s top consumer. Poor domestic demand has forced smelters to ramp up exports that have helped replenish inventories elsewhere. Commodity bull Goldman Sachs on the other hand said commodities prices would come back should concerns over a global recession turn out to be misplaced. Although copper dipped last month, the supply side tells a different story. Supply of metals is increasingly likely to come from mines which are expensive, technically complex, and outside traditional jurisdictions. According to analysts, most metals markets are currently balanced, but it will be hard to supply the amount demanded in the next 10 years to drive the energy transition and carbon zero. Wood Mackenzie estimate a greener world will be short of about 6mt of copper by 2030, meaning over 4 new Escondida mines, the worlds largest, need to come online within that period. BloombergNEF estimates appetite for refined copper will grow by 53% by 2040, but mine supply will climb only 16% – a huge gap to fill. The world’s largest miners aren’t standing idly by. After more than a decade of repenting for the excess that followed the China-led boom in demand in the 2000s, deals are back and M&A momentum is building, with green metals in buyers’ sights. The looming shortfall has encouraged Glencore to move on Teck Resources, long a coveted copper target, and top gold miner Newmont’s record bid for Newcrest Mining, a deal that will add bullion but also copper to its production profile. BHP Group has just completed the acquisition of copper producer Oz Minerals, its largest deal in over a decade. Building mines, as opposed to buying them, is still too painful a headache. Prices are not shiny enough to cover rising costs, and risks abound – although exploration has ticked higher of late, spending remains far short of what is required. Lithium markets are also showing activity – from US miner Albemarle’s 3 unsuccessful bids for prospect Liontown Resources, to Tianqi Lithium’s failed attempt to buy Essential Metals. More recently, Allkem and Livent decided to merge in an all-stock deal that values the combined entity at $10.6bn, creating a leading global integrated lithium producer.

 

Precious Metals

China added to its gold reserves for a sixth straight month, extending a flurry of purchases as central banks around the world expand their holdings of bullion amid escalating geopolitical and economic risks. Total stockpiles now sit at about 2,076 tons, after China increased reserves by about 120 tons in the five months through March. Central banks have purchased large amounts of gold in the past year to diversify assets, as well as to protect reserves from the impact of a weakening dollar and rampant inflation. While inflows moderated in the first quarter of 2023, volumes were still at historically elevated levels, according to the World Gold Council. The voracious appetite for gold has helped prices scale near-record highs as markets fret over a slowing US economy and signs of persistent credit stress. On the company side, Newmont, the world’s biggest gold producer, plans to invest a total of $540 million to extend the life of a key mine in Argentina. Last year, the project generated more than $500 million in exports, making it the most important mine in Santa Cruz. This news came after the company sealed its $19bn Newcrest takeover. The transaction, now unanimously approved by Newcrest’s board but pending regulatory approval, is the gold mining sector’s largest deal to date, surpassing Newmont’s purchase of rival Goldcorp in 2019. The PMC took part in the deal as it was invested in Newcrest when the deal was announced. Looking at PGMs, the platinum market was strongly undersupplied in 1Q23, registering the first deficit since 2Q21, according to UBS. South African mine production fell as the country suffered from power outages, while autocatalyst, industrial, and investment demand was strong, tightening the platinum market. The autocatalyst demand benefited from rising palladium to platinum substitution and higher platinum group metals loadings, because of tighter emissions norms. The Financial Times also recently forecasted global platinum demand to surge 28% this year and is expecting the markets to chalk up its largest deficit since records began in the 1970s. The demand for palladium from autocatalysts on the other hand fell to 8.45mn ounces year-over-year, the lowest level since 2017 according to Johnson Matthey – indicating substitution programs are progressing rapidly. Please find the full report about the Gold Forum on our blog.

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Climeworks – Pioneering a way forward for a greener world

Climeworks developed an innovative technology called “direct air capture” to remove CO₂ from the air so it can no longer contribute to climate change. Carbon removal solutions refer to removing existing CO₂ from the atmosphere, which enables a company to actively remove its unavoidable and historic emissions to reach net zero.

 

In April, Independent Capital Group visited Climeworks’ DAC-Plant in Hinwil, which is located on top of a waste incineration plant. The plant delivered electricity and heat to operate the DAC-modules.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Although the plant in Hinwil ceased operations in October 2022, it is still fully intact. The stacked modules contain a fan which draws in air. The air flows through a specially treated cellulose-based filter material. Like a sponge, the filter absorbs CO₂ molecules until it is saturated. To reactivate it, the filter is placed under vacuum and heated. The CO₂ molecules, which are only loosely attached, detach from the surface, and are temporarily stored. One cycle lasts around 4 hours – whereby the first 1.5 hours, air is sucked in and the rest of the time the conversion takes place. The CO₂ was then sold via underground pipeline to the nearby greenhouse (picture 3) to boost the growth of vegetables. Another sales channel were beverage companies that use CO₂ in their bottled drinks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Since the commissioning of its first direct air capture and utilization plant in 2017, the company has scaled up and changed its focus. Climeworks developed the world’s  first commercial direct air capture & storage facility in Iceland. Operations started in September 2021 – the plant has a capacity of up to 4’000 tons of CO₂ per year. It is 100% powered by clean geothermal energy and, unlike the Hinwil plant, the CO₂ captured at Orca is permanently stored underground through mineralization. Climeworks chose Iceland for its cheap and clean electricity supply as well as the geological conditions that allow easy and safe underground storage. The next plant is already in construction and will go online in 2024 – the “Mammoth” plant, also in Iceland, will add up to 36’000 tons of capacity per year.

 

 

 

The company aims to reach multi-megaton capacity in the 2030s, while the long-term goal is to reach gigaton capacity by 2050. Recently, the company expanded into the US in the wake of the country’s $369 billion climate bill, which provides significant financial incentives for climate tech companies and room for growth to achieve the ambitious goals it has set for itself.

 

 

Direct Air Capture and Storage as a Business

 

Climeworks offers a unique carbon removal service, where companies and individuals can remove their emitted CO₂ via subscription or a one-off payment. People can choose an amount they want to remove in their name and, in return, Climeworks will provide a confirmation of removal and a third-party verified certificate to the buyer. Most of Orca’s capacity has been sold already. Nevertheless, individuals and companies can purchase carbon removal capacity from future facilities, such as Mammoth.

 

Companies have already tapped in, as demonstrated by the list of notable corporate clients such as Microsoft, Swiss Re and Audi who chose Climeworks as a partner on their journey to net zero. Also, investors are showing great interest. The company collected USD 650 million in the most recent equity raise, the largest-ever equity round into DAC, valuing the company at  over USD 1 billion.

 

 

The future seems bright for Climeworks as the company offers a unique way to fight climate change. We at Independent Capital Group firmly believe that carbon removal technologies can be an important accelerator along the energy transition/road to green. Visiting Climeworks and learning about their technology has strengthened us in this belief. It certainly got us thinking about how we could improve the climate footprint of our resource-intensive financial solutions. Many thanks to Dominique Kronenberg, Chief of Staff, for the interesting tour and insights.

 

 

Visit www.climeworks.com for more information.

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ICG Commodity Update – April 2023

The ICG Commodity Update is our monthly published comment on the energy, industrial metals and precious metals market.

 

Energy

The recent banking crisis resulted in a sell-off in risk assets and commodities. Nevertheless, OPEC+’s oil output-cut bombshell at the start of April is widely expected to tighten oil markets further. Experts see the reason behind the cut being more economic than political as they want to keep oil prices at a comfortable level, which most estimate at $80/bl. Analysts expect the 2H of 2023 to show a deficit of >1.4mboe/d on average. Looking into oil and gas companies, first quarter earnings season started well. The two largest US oil and gas companies ExxonMobil and Chevron reported booming profits of $11.4bn resp. $6.6bn. Both companies have posted hefty profits averaging $9-11bn for four straight quarters even as international crude prices slid more than 35% from last year’s peak. Despite increasing dividends and buybacks, spare cash is increasing. Meanwhile, Exxon’s net debt to capital ratio shrank to 4% and has a near record cash pile of $33bn. As companies remain aflush with cash, it is no wonder that M&A rumours are increasing. Most notable was the WSJ rumour that ExxonMobil would be looking into Pioneer Natural Resources to become the Permian champion with a substantial amount of high-yielding und undrilled inventory. However, despite being a much-anticipated target, nothing happened so far. Nevertheless, according to Rystad assets worth $21bn are currently up for sale in the Permian alone. The potential for a string of acquisitions in 2023 is no surprise to us. Another interesting development is the changing investor perception towards the sector as a solution to the energy transition. As the plans to build up low-carbon businesses to achieve scale start to take shape, supported not least by the strength of upstream cash flows and strong balance sheets, we believe the message of the legacy major oil and gas companies as being part of the solution to the energy transition is starting to resonate with investors. Our impression is that the markets’ approach to the energy transition is becoming more balanced and educated, with the major oil and gas companies being more aptly referred to as integrated energy companies. We think that energy companies are key to the energy transition as they understand energy systems with all their operational, geological, geopolitical challenges u.a. and this is still underestimated.

 

Industrial Metals

Last month, coper dropped 4.4%, the most in almost a year, on a dimming global economic outlook including a weaker-than-expected start to China’s peak building season. According to Goldman Sachs, the bearish views on Chinese demand had been misconstrued and it is important to recognize the persistence of a negative shock in mine supply as a tightening effect. The bank said that current demand environment for copper is far from recessionary. Market participant gathered in Santiago in April for “Cesco Week”, one of the copper industry’s biggest conferences. The industry isn’t letting tightening credit and slowing growth kill the fundamental story behind copper. Underpinning the confidence are the lowest stockpiles of the metal in 18 years, standing at less than a week’s worth of consumption. CEO of Freeport, one of the largest copper producers, confirmed that demand for the company’s copper continues to be strong. As new deposits become pricier and tricker to develop, major producers like BHP and Glencore are turning back to deal-making for growth – as seen recently, when Glencore offered to buy Teck Resources for $23bn. The controlling shareholder has said the company will be up for sale, but only after separation, but the board withdrew its separation proposal ahead of its AGM due to lack of support. The company is set to pursue a simpler and more direct separation, which is the best path to unlock the full value according to the CEO. Most analysts expect a revised offer from Glencore, who is willing to present its takeover offer directly to shareholders if the board doesn’t come to the negotiating table. The deal is also closely watched by politicians, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau said that any takeover bid for Teck will have to get through a rigorous process to win government approval. Looking at lithium, Chile, the No. 2 lithium producer globally, is transforming its model for production and is seeking majority stakes in new contracts with private companies. Although the royalties and taxes paid to the government are already by far the highest globally, Chile also wants direct ownership – with risking to lose investments and market-share to other lithium-rich destination like Argentina or Australia. The news dragged down shares of Albemarle and SQM, even as the government has vowed to respect existing arrangements. SQM’s contract expires in 2030, Albemarle has more flexibility with its expiration date only due in 2043 – both are encouraged to enter talks with the government though.

 

Precious Metals

Gold futures have ended April only modestly higher than in March and moved around the $2’000/oz mark throughout the month. Analysts think that many of the key drivers behind gold prices rising past $2,000 are still present, including persistently higher inflation in many countries, the likelihood of a U.S. and global recession, the U.S. regional banking system getting wobbly, and instability caused by war, but the relative strength of the U.S. dollar has been a drag on even higher gold prices. Gold as a hedge against uncertainty is regaining more and more attention, particularly since the U.S. banking issues of late, which are in addition to the de-dollarization rhetoric coming out of the BRICS nations, which include Russia. Especially since the seizure of Russia’s foreign exchange reserve, central banks view gold as a safe haven and spur demand. Looking at PGMs, new emission standards in China due from July will spur demand from new models – according to BMO, vehicle sales were strong year-over-year in developed world and increasingly in China. Going forward, the heavily concentrated supply risk should keep all PGM balances tight, although markets suffer from the electric vehicle narrative and the associated lower demand. Some analysts predict the PGM demand for fuel cells in hydrogen are set to replace the missing future catalysts demand for traditional ICE vehicles.

 

Also, Independent Capital Group visited this year’s Denver Gold Group Forum in Zurich in April. As the industry is struggling with an ageing asset base, lower grades as well as declining production, it seems that companies are slowly bringing their focus back to growth. Interestingly, companies currently prefer organic over inorganic growth. Nonetheless, balance sheets remain clean and offer plenty of room for shareholder returns. Companies are aware that the industry still has some work to do to gain back the trust of generalist investors – the best way to get the trust back is through dividends and shares buyback. Please find the full report about the Gold Forum on our blog.

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Summary: Gold Forum Europe – Zürich, April 2023

Independent Capital Group attended this year’s Gold Forum Europe in Zurich and is pleased to publish a one-pager with the most important take-aways from the conference. You can download the document below – if you have any questions on a specific topic or would like a second opinion, please feel free to contact us.

 

Detailed company level abstracts are available upon request at research@independent-capital.com.

 

 

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ICG Commodity Update – March 2023

The ICG Commodity Update is our monthly published comment on the energy, industrial metals and precious metals market.

 

Energy

OPEC+ has changed the narrative in global oil markets over the weekend. Things had been starting to look a bit gloomy for crude in recent weeks. Prices slumped to a 15-month low near $70/bl in late March as the banking crisis added to concerns over a worldwide supply surplus and stubbornly resilient output from Russia. However, nine members of OPEC+ announced yesterday a surprise “voluntary” collective output cut totalling 1.66mboe/d which will take effect from May till the end of 2023. Russia cuts would also extend into 2H 2023. Saudi Arabia led the cartel by pledging its own 500kboe/d supply reduction. The move is a surprise given previous messaging (as recently as Friday) suggesting they would hold output steady. The Saudi Arabian Ministry of Energy official emphasized that “this is a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market”. This announcement represents further evidence of Saudi Arabia and their allies’ new oil policy since last summer to prioritize prices over volumes. Most analysts think this announcement will improve the oil market from a large oversupply to close to breakeven in the second quarter while expanding the deficit in 2H23. However, spare capacity will also increase to +3mboe/d in the near-term. On the company side its interesting to see, that upstream investments may hit pre-Covid levels in 2023, according to Rystad Energy. They have tracked 70 companies so far that are guiding for $165bn in investments in 2023, which makes up around one-third of total upstream investments. The spending increase among the various company segements is, however, different. Majors are on the conservative side, with an average growth of 11% this year. Shale companies are guiding an average increase of 16%, while all other companies are guiding average growth north of 20%. For the ‘others’ group, Equinor and Petrobras are the main drivers of growth. Another observation is that the growth in investments this year with +15% will be slower compared to last year – in 2022, upstream investment growth for this full set of companies was +30%. Indeed, many producers were left more exposed after they had rolled back hedges. Top listed shale producers have locked in prices for only about 27% of their output for 2023 at an average price of $66/bl, down from over 40% they hedged last year. By the way, we noticed that our peer group in Switzerland fell significantly. There are just 8 mutual funds in the energy space left.

 

Industrial Metals

Last month, the EU published its “Critical Raw Materials Act”, amid the growing battle for security of raw material supply. In it, the EU has admitted that full raw material self-security is impossible, and thus it wants to establish a ”critical raw materials club” with like-minded countries. Notably, some support to mining will be provided, while copper, nickel and manganese have been added to the critical raw materials list. By 2030, the EU is targeting domestic extraction to be 10% of annual EU consumption of strategic raw materials, refining/processing to be 40% and secondary material to be 10%. Meanwhile, no more than 65% of consumption at any stage of the process should be imported from a single third country. It is worth putting China’s share of metals and energy transition materials into context. China is now almost 60% of global steel and aluminum production, and ~50% of all other base metals. For refined battery raw materials, this goes up towards 70%. However, there is a weak spot, in that China is reliant on raw material imports in many areas. Also, South American nations are stepping up efforts to propel themselves further down the EV-supply chain by leveraging their vast mineral wealth, expanding processing capacity, and targeting vehicle manufacturing. Argentina, Chile, Bolivia and Brazil plan to coordinate action on turning more mined lithium into battery chemicals, as well as moving into manufacturing of batteries and EVs. Looking at copper, according to Trafigura, the global inventories have dropped rapidly in recent weeks to their lowest seasonal level since 2008, leaving little buffer if demand in China continues to pace ahead as strongly as it did in February – Chinese copper demand was up 13% year-on-year last month, after activity picked up following the lunar new year. Goldman Sachs expects the world to run out of visible copper inventories by the 3rd quarter of this year and expects new highs. On the company side, Teck Resources rejected a proposal from Glencore to buy the company and then spin off their combined coal businesses, in the latest sign of dealmaking heating up across the mining industry. It shows how large producers of coal are grappling with the future of this business. Mining companies are seeking to focus more on metals that will benefit from the clean-energy transition, and yet coal still remains a big profit driver.

 

Precious Metals

Gold rose 7.8% in March, its biggest monthly gain since November, and closed at one of the highest prices per ounce it’s ever been at the end of a quarter, as turmoil in the banking sector spurred haven demand and diminished expectations for more monetary tightening. Those concerns have since dissipated after swift action from the US and Swiss authorities, though gold is holding most of its gains. Also, gold edged higher as markets were rocked by a surprise oil production cut by OPEC+ that threatens to add to global inflationary pressures. Treasury yields rose after the cartel’s announcement, putting pressure on non-yielding gold, though support came from the dollar weakening. Swaps traders slightly upped their bets on another Federal Reserve hike to curb inflation. Focus is now turning to economic data for signs the economy is beginning to slow under the Fed’s rate hikes. Most analysts think that heightened uncertainty will continue to fundamentally support gold over the coming months – Goldman Sachs for example raised its gold price forecasts, describing it as the best hedge against financial risks, and reiterated its bullish view on commodities as a banking crisis has yet to spill over into physical markets. It hiked its 12-month gold price target to $2,050 an ounce from $1,950, joining others such as Citi, ANZ and Commerzbank in raising forecasts. On the company side, Gold Fields and AngloGold Ashanti have proposed a joint venture in Ghana that would create Africa’s largest gold mine. Gold Fields would hold two-thirds of the venture that would combine the operations of its “Tarkwa” mine with those of AngloGold’s neighboring “Iduapriem” – both companies would benefit from synergies and cost savings. Gold Fields and AngloGold have shifted their focus to more profitable mines in Ghana, Australia and Latin America as the sector in South Africa dwindles. The joint venture follows gold industry trends for deals that provide scale, unlock synergies, and prolong a mine’s life.

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ICG Commodity Update – February 2023

The ICG Commodity Update is our monthly published comment on the energy, industrial metals and precious metals market.

 

Energy

Energy markets remain lower this year as the prospect of tighter US monetary policy and rising inventories in the US have so far outweighed optimism that Chinese demand will strengthen as activity picks up. Indeed, China’s crude oil consumption is expected to hit pre-pandemic highs and might contribute to most of the global oil demand in 2023 according to most analysts. On the supply side, US shale growth could slow to 300kboe/d in 2023, which is half of the growth of last year on issues with labour shortages and supply chain bottlenecks according to the Fed of Dallas and the EIA. Further to that, Russian flows are also in focus as western sanctions and bans related to the war in Ukraine tighten. However, markets have generally overestimated the extent of Russian oil supply disruptions since the Ukraine war began. Nevertheless, Russia’s deputy prime minister Novak recently indicated that the country will cut its oil production by 500kboe/d in March. According to Goldman Sachs, after all, the bullish micro fundamental story is still very much intact. Even front-end oil time spreads have moved back into backwardation, a sign of physical tightness. Interestingly, products now exhibit higher implied volatility than crude prices, unprecedented since the mid-2000s “Golden Age of Refining”, highlighting that the most binding constraints exist in seaborne transportation and distillation, rather than well-head production. This has direct implications for crude differentials, where quality concerns (product netbacks) and seaborne transportation costs now govern regional swings in crude prices. On the natural gas side, several US companies recently announced they are pulling back on gas drilling as US gas prices have fallen by about 50% this year. February saw the most oil and gas rig drop since June 2020. The 4Q results for the oil and gas companies have proven what we have communicated for some time. The profit for the upstream industry reached a record high-level last year. Interestingly, a key observation from the quarter results is the change in strategy from some of the European majors. Companies like BP and Shell have reversed some of their aggressive energy transition strategies. The clearest case is BP, the company is now guiding higher future upstream investments and higher oil and gas production. This is evidence that energy security is probably becoming more important post-Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

 

Industrial Metals

According to analysts, it appears that the market is looking through a patch of demand softness in the copper market with the focus on firmer cyclical Chinese offtake to come, less growth tail risks in the developed world, and structural demand trends staying resilient. Market participants expect a 3.1% growth in global copper demand this year, while on the supply side, more than 250kt of annualized mine output could be at risk due to protests in Peru. Some analysts also see longer-term implications, with companies potentially delaying the approval of new projects. Politics could put a brake on new supply. Countries with large reserves of metals such as Peru are pushing for a bigger share of the profits from mining, which could discourage investment. In Chile, the world’s biggest copper producer, mining projects have been held back by regulatory uncertainties. In Panama, one of the largest copper mines in the world is embroiled in a tax dispute and has currently suspended ore processing. Companies got burned in the past when the cycle turned, and they found themselves boosting output just as demand was falling. Since then, they have prioritized strong balance sheets and become more wary of investing in new projects. The specter of global inflation makes heavy capital spending even less palatable as it pushes up costs. What is more, rich copper deposits are getting harder, and more expensive, to find – just in time when expansion is needed as large supply shortages are expected in the near future. If supply shortages turn out to be as severe as some analysts predict, it would cause a surge in prices that risks damaging the economics of smart grids and renewables and slowing their adoption. Looking at companies, the results from the world’s biggest miners are so-far disappointing as they grappled with lower metals prices and rising energy and labor costs. 2022 was a volatile year for industrial metals, with record prices in the first half giving way to a second-half slump amid fears for the global economy. Rio Tinto slashed its dividend on lower profits, BHP’s half-year earnings fell from a record, while Vale was hurt by cost inflation. Glencore had a better outing, posting its best-ever profit thanks to a global coal boom. Even though inflationary pressures are softening as supply chains start to ease up and gas prices fall, the direct flow through to the cost base will take time. Nevertheless, the companies are optimistic about a turnaround in its biggest market China, after the end of Covid Zero.

 

Precious Metals

Following a strong rally at the start of the year, rising US interest rates sparking growth concerns and a stronger US dollar have weighed on precious metals. Gold headed for its worst month since the mid-2021, after a slew of data saw traders pricing a higher peak for US interest rates this year. The metal was down close to 6% in February – strong inflation, home sales and jobs data have increased expectations for monetary tightening. The dollar and Treasury yields have risen last month, dimming the allure of non-interest-bearing gold. That’s triggered outflows from bullion-backed ETFs. Looking at companies, Newmont’s $17 billion push to buy Newcrest Mining comes as miners wrestle with the reality that gold deposits are small, costly and short in life – while making the case for more diversification. A tie-up with Newcrest would boost Newmont’s gold output by about a third, based on 2022 production, and give the added bonus of greater exposure to highly sought copper. Newcrest rejected the $17 billion proposal, with interim CEO saying the company was “worth a lot more”. Newmont said during an earnings call that they are still engaging with the company, adding that a combination would create an ideal mix of gold and copper. Newmont’s reference to copper is a sign of how precious metals producers are looking to diversify as margins and revenues take a hit from lower-grade and harder-to-access gold deposits. Some base metals are increasingly coveted as global demand surges for materials that play a crucial role in the global push to electrify transportation and build cleaner energy technologies. Looking at platinum, markets are expected to tighten according to Analysts. Power outages continue to plague South Africa. Last week, state-owned utility Eskom announced power cuts of 7,000 megawatts, aiming to prevent a total collapse of the national grid. South Africa is the largest platinum producer, accounting for more than 70% of the world’s platinum mining supply, and while miners have backup systems, these power disruptions are likely to weigh on PGM production. Palladium on the other hand is expected to be oversupplied this year due to slower economic growth, higher scrap supply and substitution in autocatalysts favoring cheaper platinum at the expense of palladium.

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Cluster Risk in Mining – wieso ein Portfolioansatz Sinn macht

Von einem “Cluster Risk” (Klumpenrisiko) spricht man, wenn sich bestimmte Risiken in einem Portfolio anhäufen, z.B. wenn ein Grossteil des Anlagekapitals in Aktien eines einzigen Unternehmens, Sektors oder einer Region investiert ist – besonders im Rohstoffbereich sollte dieses Risiko berücksichtigt werden.

 

Im Öl- und Gassektor beispielsweise fährt ein Investor mit den Majors wie BP oder Shell nicht nur geografisch diversifiziert, sondern partizipiert mit diesen Firmen auch an den verschiedenen Geschäftszweigen, also vom Up-, Mid- & Downstream Geschäft, die je nach Marktlage anderen Trends folgen und Unternehmensgewinne glätten können. Man kann deshalb durchaus behaupten, dass man zumindest innerhalb des Sektors gut diversifiziert ist – sofern man firmenspezifische Risiken ausklammert.

 

Bei den Metallproduzenten ist dies schwieriger. Es gibt in diesem Sinne keine Firma analog zu BP oder Shell, mit der man auf Produktebene wie auch geografisch als Investor eine genügende Diversifikation erhält.

 

Wir haben diese Problematik genauer untersucht und verschiedene Allokationen auf Produktebene sowie geografischer Exponierung miteinander verglichen. Für die Analyse wurde ein gleichgewichtetes Portfolio der grössten 5 Minenfirmen (BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale, Glencore und Anglo American) dem iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK) sowie dem Portfolio des Industrial Metals Champions Funds (IMC) der Independent Capital Group gegenübergestellt.

 

Wir berechnen jährlich sämtliche relevanten Daten auf kupferequivalenter Basis. Die folgenden Resultate basieren auf den öffentlich publizierten Geschäftszahlen 2021 und 2020 und sind gewichtete Werte.

 

 

Inhalt

 

• Top 5 Minenfirmen

 

• iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK)

 

• Industrial Metals Champions Fund (IMC)

 

• Critical Minerals Intensität

 

• Finanzielle Kennzahlen

 

• Konklusion

 

• Informationen

 

• Downloads

 

• Quellen

 

 

 

Top 5 Minenfirmen

 

 

Sofern ein Investor sich dazu entscheidet, den Minensektor mit den Top 5 abzudecken, würde das Portfolio besonders auf Preisschwankungen von Eisenerz, Kupfer und Kohle reagieren und hätte geografisch gesehen eine hohe Exponierung zum australischen, brasilianischen und dem südafrikanischen Markt.

 

ESG-sensiblen Investoren wäre das Engagement in Kohle (3. & 4. grösstes Rohstoffexposure) sicherlich ein Dorn im Auge – denn obwohl sich die Firmen teilweise von Kohle verabschiedet haben, erwirtschaften BHP, Glencore und auch Anglo American noch beachtliche Summen mit dem Produkt.

 

Sowohl auf der Produktebene wie auch aus geografischer Sicht ist ein Investor mit den Top 5 Minenfirmen ungenügend diversifiziert – 5 Rohstoffe steuern über 80% des Umsatzes bei, die Top 5 Länder gar deren 90%.

 

 

iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK)

 

 

Durch ein Engagement über den PICK ETF erhält ein Investor schon einen bedeutend besseren Rohstoffmix. Die Top 5 Produkte setzen sich aus Eisenerz, Stahl, Kupfer, Aluminium sowie Stahlkohle zusammen und werden kumuliert mit 75% gewichtet. Geografisch gesehen machen die Top 5 Länder gut 65% des Gesamt-Portfolios aus.

 

Problematisch aus unserer Sicht ist jedoch die Portfoliokonstruktion – die Top 10 Positionen werden kumuliert mit über 53% gewichtet, die Top 25 mit 70%, wobei 218 Firmen den Rest bilden.

 

Bei der Analyse der Beteiligungen sind uns neben exotischen Holdings auch solche in Russland und China (H- und A-Shares) aufgefallen – ebenfalls pure-plays im Kohlesektor, «ultrasmall»-Caps und vereinzelt auch Edelmetallproduzenten. Natürlich kann man mit der geringen Gewichtung im Portfoliokontext argumentieren, sofern man als Investor jedoch mit gewissen Einschränkungen konfrontiert ist (beispielsweise kein Exposure zu Russland o.Ä.) kann auch eine geringe Allokation zu ungewünschten Positionen führen.

 

 

Industrial Metals Champions Fund (IMC)

 

 

Obwohl sich das Portfolio des IMC aus nur 25 Titel zusammensetzt, erhält ein Investor gegenüber den ersten beiden Varianten sowohl auf Produktebene wie auch aus geografischer Sicht eine weit bessere Diversifikation.

 

Auch hier fällt auf, dass Kupfer, Stahl und Eisenerz die Spitze des Portfolios bilden, nichtsdestotrotz unterscheidet sich die kumulierte Gewichtung der Top 3 um über 10%-Punkte gegenüber dem ETF. Ein Investor erhält einen Rohstoffmix aus insgesamt 15 verschiedenen Rohstoffen, die eine Mindestgewichtung von über 1% ausmachen – auf der Länderebene sogar 20.

 

Das gleichgewichtete und aktiv verwaltete Portfolio setzt auf produzierende, finanziell gesunde Firmen, die einen langjährigen Trackrecord ausweisen. Mittels «ICG Alpha Scorecard» werden Firmen favorisiert, die basierend auf den 6 Säulen «Assets», «Value», «Sustainability (ESG)», «Dividends», «Balance Sheet» und «Behavioral Finance» die relativ besten Werte ausweisen. Dieser Ansatz bewirkt, dass grundsätzlich keine Firmen in der Explorations- oder der Entwicklungsphase ausgewählt werden. Ausserdem werden gewisse Ausschlusskriterien definiert, beispielsweise keine Investitionen in pure play Kohlefirmen.

 

 

Critical Minerals Intensität

 

 

Im Kontext der Energiewende stehen einige Rohstoffe besonders im Fokus. Um den Wandel von der fossilen Gegenwart in eine grüne Zukunft zu bewältigen, werden immense Mengen an Industriemetallen gebraucht.

 

Dieser langfristige Trend sollte im Rohstoffmix eines Portfolios berücksichtig werden. Auch im Hinblick auf dieses Thema profitiert ein Investor von einer optimaleren Exponierung mittels PICK, respektive dem Industrial Metals Champions Fund gegenüber der «Top 5».

 

 

Finanzielle Kennzahlen

 

 

Grundsätzlich sind die finanziellen Kennzahlen im Minensektor sowohl auf Bewertungsebene wie auch mit Fokus auf die Rentabilität sehr attraktiv. Die Minenfirmen befinden sich momentan in einem “Sweet-Spot” – dank der tiefen Verschuldung und den historisch hohen Rohstoffpreisen können die Firmen rekordhohe Aktionärsrenditen bezahlen.

 

Im Vergleich liegen die Kennzahlen nahe beieinander. Die Top 5 weisen für Majors typischerweise eine höhere Dividendenrendite aus, während der Industrial Metals Champions Fund über eine signifikant tiefere Verschuldung verfügt.

 

 

Konklusion

 

Das Thema Rohstoffe wird in der Asset Allokation gerne zusammengefasst, dies, obwohl jedes einzelne Produkt eigenen Fundamentaldaten folgt. Besonders wenn die Rohstoffallokation über Aktien erfolgt, ist ein optimaler Rohstoffmix mit einem Einzelinvestment nicht möglich.

 

Einerseits sind gewisse Rohstoffbestände geografisch konzentriert (z.B. Kobalt im Kongo), andererseits gehört der Bergbau zu den kapitalintensivsten Industrien überhaupt – von der Exploration bis zu der kommerziellen Produktion können 10-20 Jahre vergehen und Milliarden von Dollar kosten. Deshalb ist es wenig überraschend, dass viele Firmen eine gewisse Konzentration aufweisen und sich nur sehr schwerfällig diversifizieren. Obwohl sich zum Beispiel grössere Firmen Übernahmen leisten, um sich hin zu den kritischen Metallen zu diversifizieren, fallen diese Rohstoffe im Gesamtmix vorerst kaum ins Gewicht und führen in der Asset Allokation des Investors zu einem vernachlässigbarem Exposure.

 

Der Industrial Metals Champions Fund weist gegenüber den Top 5 und dem PICK ETF sowohl in Bezug auf den Rohstoffmix als auch geografisch eine bedeutend bessere Diversifikation aus, ohne bei den Bewertungsparametern Kompromisse zu machen. Das IMC Portfolio ist praktisch schuldenfrei, reduziert vis-à-vis einem Top 5 Portfolio das Einzelfirmenrisiko ganz wesentlich und ist im Vergleich zum PICK ETF fokussierter.

 

 

Informationen

 

Die Independent Capital Group Basel befasst sich seit über 20 Jahren mit Rohstoffinvestments. Unsere Anlagelösung, der Industrial Metals Champions Fund (IMC), setzt auf den Megatrend Energiewende und probiert anhand eines systematischen Investmentansatz die best-in-class Minenfirmen auszuwählen, die von der steigenden Nachfrage nach Industriemetallen profitieren können. Das Portfolio des IMC setzt sich aus 25 Aktien des Industriemetall-Sektors zusammen und bietet rohstoffspezifische aber auch länderspezifische Diversifikation. Unser Investmentprozess basiert auf einem quantitativen Ansatz und versucht mittels eigens entwickelter Scorecard emotionale Entscheide konsequent auszublenden. Die Scorecard beruht auf standardisierten Daten um Firmen im Rohstoff-Universum einordnen und vergleichen zu können, wobei sie anhand von verschiedenen finanziellen, unternehmensspezifischen aber auch operativen Kennzahlen verglichen werden.

 

 

 

Downloads

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quellen

 

This research paper used Bloomberg and ICG internal data based on the companies’ respective 2021 and 2020 public disclosures. If you would like to see a specific dataset, please do not hesitate to contact us at research@independent-capital.com.

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